Read the hourly pattern, not just a rain symbol
Rain probability and rainfall intensity are different quantities. An icon can hide whether the rain is expected during the approach, the exposed section or the return. Check the full outing, and look at wind and feels-like conditions alongside rain rather than treating a waterproof jacket as the whole plan.
In the model, likely-rain triggers select one branch. The probability and amount do not each add a separate rain deduction. Heavy rain uses a different branch and a critical cap. The worked examples let you inspect the arithmetic without presenting a synthetic hour as today’s forecast.
The catchment can matter beyond your forecast point
The selected point does not measure water flowing from the surrounding area. A crossing can be unsuitable even when rain at your starting point is easing. The page therefore cannot certify a ford, a riverside path or a steep trail after sustained wet weather.
Choose a route that remains practical if the timing shifts. A short familiar loop with easy exits presents a different planning problem from an exposed traverse. If the only return option crosses water or difficult ground, obtain local information instead of asking the score to answer a question it cannot see.
Worked examples from the existing scorer
These complete hypothetical hours run through the same scoring functions used by the live tool. They are not observations or forecasts. The displayed effective score includes any cap.
| Example | Effective score | Verdict | Model reasons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rain chance 35% | 90/100 | GO | some rain risk |
| Likely rain | 75/100 | GO | rain likely |
| Heavy rain | 40/100 | NO-GO | heavy rain · NOGO cap |
Exact example inputs and units
temp and feels: °C; wind and gust: km/h; precipitation: mm/h; visibility: m; rain probability, cloud and humidity: %. Weather code is WMO; UV is an index. Pressure, where shown, is context in hPa and does not affect this scorer.
[
{
"example": "Rain chance 35%",
"inputs": {
"temp": 15,
"feels": 15,
"precip": 0,
"pop": 35,
"wind": 10,
"gust": 15,
"vis": 20000,
"code": 0,
"cloud": 10,
"humidity": 60,
"uv": 0,
"pressure": 1010
}
},
{
"example": "Likely rain",
"inputs": {
"temp": 15,
"feels": 15,
"precip": 0.3,
"pop": 60,
"wind": 10,
"gust": 15,
"vis": 20000,
"code": 61,
"cloud": 10,
"humidity": 60,
"uv": 0,
"pressure": 1010
}
},
{
"example": "Heavy rain",
"inputs": {
"temp": 15,
"feels": 15,
"precip": 2,
"pop": 80,
"wind": 10,
"gust": 15,
"vis": 20000,
"code": 63,
"cloud": 10,
"humidity": 60,
"uv": 0,
"pressure": 1010
}
}
]Planning bands and the limits of the number
The existing model starts at 100, subtracts its condition penalties and applies critical caps. GO is 70–100, MAYBE 45–69 and NO-GO 0–44. A MAYBE cap limits the effective score to 64, and a NO-GO cap to 40. These are application suitability bands, not certified safe operating limits.
Rain branches are alternatives: matching probability, intensity and weather-code triggers do not mean adding the same rain penalty repeatedly. Separate factors can combine. A cap prevents benign temperature or dry weather from cancelling a critical flagged condition. Use the reasons beside the result to understand what changed.
The model requires complete numeric weather inputs. Missing visibility, rain probability or another required value returns Insufficient data; it is never filled with an invented favourable value. Local warnings, closures, equipment instructions and actual observations can change your decision even when the model returns GO.
Read the full hiking methodology and thresholds. The model and these examples were cross-checked on 18 October 2026. No physical field-test or safety certification is claimed.
Equipment and an alternative plan
Keep important items and a spare layer dry, check footwear for the surface and choose a shorter route if the forecast is uncertain. Follow flood and trail-closure advice. Turn back before a crossing or exposed section becomes the only way home; equipment does not override a critical weather cap.
Questions about Hiking in rain: intensity, footing and a shorter route
Does less than 2 mm/h mean a crossing is safe?
No. That number is a model boundary, not a river or flood threshold.
Can a rain jacket raise the score?
No. The score uses the same weather inputs regardless of purchases.
Why check the return forecast?
A favourable start does not cover later hours or a delayed return.
Sources and limits
The numeric application bands come from the existing GoNoGo scorer and methodology. External guidance is linked for its stated context; it is not presented as endorsement of this model.
Live forecast data is supplied by Open-Meteo. An illustrative model output is different from a live forecast, and a forecast is different from a local observation.