A wet session is not just a clothing question
Check when the rain is expected and how it overlaps the full session. A brief shower and sustained heavy rain can produce different route and return problems. Probability and millimetres per hour describe different things; do not add both as if they were independent model penalties.
The explorer makes the branch selection visible. Changing only probability shows a different example from changing intensity and the weather code together. Neither is a live observation, and neither says whether the particular surface you intend to use has good drainage.
Keep the route simpler when information is poor
The score cannot inspect standing water, a flooded underpass, fallen branches or drivers’ ability to see you. A route with easy exits can be a more useful adaptation than assuming a waterproof layer solves everything. Do not choose a crossing simply because the forecast rain amount is modest.
Cold rain adds an exposure issue if you slow or stop. A wet session also needs a practical return and a way to get dry. If thunder develops, leave the running plan behind and follow proper shelter guidance; waiting for heavy rain is not a suitable storm trigger.
Worked examples from the existing scorer
These complete hypothetical hours run through the same scoring functions used by the live tool. They are not observations or forecasts. The displayed effective score includes any cap.
| Example | Effective score | Verdict | Model reasons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rain chance 35% | 92/100 | GO | some rain risk |
| Likely rain | 80/100 | GO | rain likely |
| Heavy rain | 55/100 | MAYBE | heavy rain |
Exact example inputs and units
temp and feels: °C; wind and gust: km/h; precipitation: mm/h; visibility: m; rain probability, cloud and humidity: %. Weather code is WMO; UV is an index. Pressure, where shown, is context in hPa and does not affect this scorer.
[
{
"example": "Rain chance 35%",
"inputs": {
"temp": 15,
"feels": 15,
"precip": 0,
"pop": 35,
"wind": 10,
"gust": 15,
"vis": 20000,
"code": 0,
"cloud": 10,
"humidity": 60,
"uv": 0,
"pressure": 1010
}
},
{
"example": "Likely rain",
"inputs": {
"temp": 15,
"feels": 15,
"precip": 0.3,
"pop": 60,
"wind": 10,
"gust": 15,
"vis": 20000,
"code": 61,
"cloud": 10,
"humidity": 60,
"uv": 0,
"pressure": 1010
}
},
{
"example": "Heavy rain",
"inputs": {
"temp": 15,
"feels": 15,
"precip": 2,
"pop": 80,
"wind": 10,
"gust": 15,
"vis": 20000,
"code": 63,
"cloud": 10,
"humidity": 60,
"uv": 0,
"pressure": 1010
}
}
]Planning bands and the limits of the number
The existing model starts at 100, subtracts its condition penalties and applies critical caps. GO is 70–100, MAYBE 45–69 and NO-GO 0–44. A MAYBE cap limits the effective score to 64, and a NO-GO cap to 40. These are application suitability bands, not certified safe operating limits.
Rain branches are alternatives: matching probability, intensity and weather-code triggers do not mean adding the same rain penalty repeatedly. Separate factors can combine. A cap prevents benign temperature or dry weather from cancelling a critical flagged condition. Use the reasons beside the result to understand what changed.
The model requires complete numeric weather inputs. Missing visibility, rain probability or another required value returns Insufficient data; it is never filled with an invented favourable value. Local warnings, closures, equipment instructions and actual observations can change your decision even when the model returns GO.
Read the full running methodology and thresholds. The model and these examples were cross-checked on 18 October 2026. No physical field-test or safety certification is claimed.
Equipment and an alternative plan
Choose a visible route with reliable footing and easy exits, keep important items dry and plan how to change after the run. Postpone or use an indoor session for closures, flooding or storms. Buying equipment does not remove a weather penalty or make floodwater suitable.
Questions about Running in rain: intensity, visibility and route choices
Are rain chance and rainfall the same?
No. One describes likelihood and the other an amount over time.
Does a GO establish that the route is dry?
No. It only describes the selected weather inputs.
Will the score detect a flooded path?
No. Check local information and the actual route.
Sources and limits
The numeric application bands come from the existing GoNoGo scorer and methodology. External guidance is linked for its stated context; it is not presented as endorsement of this model.
Live forecast data is supplied by Open-Meteo. An illustrative model output is different from a live forecast, and a forecast is different from a local observation.