Keep the lull, average and peak distinct
A single average cannot describe both a lull and a strong gust. Nor should you subtract or divide the values to invent a universal gustiness threshold that the existing model does not contain. The explorer demonstrates the current rules by holding mean wind fixed and increasing the gust input.
This can make the score worsen while the mean value stays attractive. That is intentional: favourable inputs should not erase the stronger-wind cap. The model still cannot decide whether the kite can be controlled through the actual range at a particular beach.
The model does not know the launch environment
Obstacles, space downwind, turbulence, waves and help on shore are outside its inputs. A number measured or modelled away from the launch may not describe conditions at the point where a kite is raised. Obtain appropriate local instruction and check the equipment’s documented limits.
Storms are an independent hard stop in the model. A brief calm interval does not show that a storm-related change has passed. A sizing formula also cannot make an unsuitable gust pattern suitable simply by returning a smaller area.
Worked examples from the existing scorer
These complete hypothetical hours run through the same scoring functions used by the live tool. They are not observations or forecasts. The displayed effective score includes any cap.
| Example | Effective score | Verdict | Model reasons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean 15, gusts 20 km/h | 100/100 | GO | No model penalties |
| Same mean, gusts 45 | 64/100 | MAYBE | strong — experienced riders only · MAYBE cap |
| Same mean, gusts 53 | 40/100 | NO-GO | dangerously strong wind · NOGO cap |
Exact example inputs and units
temp and feels: °C; wind and gust: km/h; precipitation: mm/h; visibility: m; rain probability, cloud and humidity: %. Weather code is WMO; UV is an index. Pressure, where shown, is context in hPa and does not affect this scorer.
[
{
"example": "Mean 15, gusts 20 km/h",
"inputs": {
"temp": 15,
"feels": 15,
"precip": 0,
"pop": 0,
"wind": 15,
"gust": 20,
"vis": 20000,
"code": 0,
"cloud": 10,
"humidity": 60,
"uv": 0,
"pressure": 1010
}
},
{
"example": "Same mean, gusts 45",
"inputs": {
"temp": 15,
"feels": 15,
"precip": 0,
"pop": 0,
"wind": 15,
"gust": 45,
"vis": 20000,
"code": 0,
"cloud": 10,
"humidity": 60,
"uv": 0,
"pressure": 1010
}
},
{
"example": "Same mean, gusts 53",
"inputs": {
"temp": 15,
"feels": 15,
"precip": 0,
"pop": 0,
"wind": 15,
"gust": 53,
"vis": 20000,
"code": 0,
"cloud": 10,
"humidity": 60,
"uv": 0,
"pressure": 1010
}
}
]Planning bands and the limits of the number
The existing model starts at 100, subtracts its condition penalties and applies critical caps. GO is 70–100, MAYBE 45–69 and NO-GO 0–44. A MAYBE cap limits the effective score to 64, and a NO-GO cap to 40. These are application suitability bands, not certified safe operating limits.
Rain branches are alternatives: matching probability, intensity and weather-code triggers do not mean adding the same rain penalty repeatedly. Separate factors can combine. A cap prevents benign temperature or dry weather from cancelling a critical flagged condition. Use the reasons beside the result to understand what changed.
The model requires complete numeric weather inputs. Missing visibility, rain probability or another required value returns Insufficient data; it is never filled with an invented favourable value. Local warnings, closures, equipment instructions and actual observations can change your decision even when the model returns GO.
Read the full kitesurf methodology and thresholds. The model and these examples were cross-checked on 18 October 2026. No physical field-test or safety certification is claimed.
Equipment and an alternative plan
Compare the forecast’s mean and gusts, check the real site and follow the kite’s manual and qualified local advice. Use a more suitable spot or postpone if the range or launch conditions are beyond the plan. Do not rely on the app to detect every sudden change.
Questions about Gusty wind for kitesurfing: why the average is not enough
Is there a scored gust-factor ratio?
No. The existing scorer does not contain one.
Does the mean wind cancel a high gust?
No. The gust is used when provided and critical caps still apply.
Can a size calculator solve gusty conditions?
No. It does not assess control, launch exposure or sudden weather changes.
Sources and limits
The numeric application bands come from the existing GoNoGo scorer and methodology. External guidance is linked for its stated context; it is not presented as endorsement of this model.
Live forecast data is supplied by Open-Meteo. An illustrative model output is different from a live forecast, and a forecast is different from a local observation.